What's the Worst That Can Happen in Iraq?

The headlines tell it all:



Baghdad, Chaos Undercuts Tack Pursued by U.S. - New York Times





Iraqis In Mass Protest Against U.S., Israel
"Pro-Hezbollah Rally Called By Radical Cleric Attracts Thousands.”

Iraqi Medic Describes Scene of Rape and Killings, Chaos Undercuts Tack Pursued by U.S. - New York Times "Baghdad's slide into chaos undercuts the central premise that Iraqi forces can be trained to secure their own country."

Meanwhile, the political opportunists are restless, sensing the jugular: Edwards Wants Immediate Iraq Withdrawal

And some politicians are paying the ultimate price for saying what they believe: Conn. Race Could Be Democratic Watershed “Loss by Lieberman May Embolden Critics of War.”

Then, if it weren't bad enough, CIA Officers Warn of Iraq Civil War, Contradicting Bush's Optimism



Iraqi Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki does not seem up to the task of unifying his country. What man would be, Lincoln?

What’s the worst that could happen? Civil War.



The American Civil War lasted from 1861 to 1865*. The Union lost 120,000 men killed in action and 240,000 who died of other causes, for a total of 360,000. The Confederates lost 95,000 men killed in action and 165,000 who died of other causes, for a total of 260,000. The total number of dead in the war was, then, 620,000, plus an unknown number of civilian deaths.

The Iraq war per se started in 2003, and continues with no end in sight. The current approximation of Iraqi civilians and police killed after the 2003 Invasion of Iraq is over 40,000, with about three times this injured.

Coalition forces have lost 2,798 combatants, with 2,570 of these from the U.S.

Iraqi soldiers who have died number 2,320, and 3.450 Iraqi policemen.

45 journalists, and 20 media support workers have lost their lives in this war.

The numbers are cold, but they show that the Iraq War is far from being the killing fields of our Civil War. On the other hand, this thing continues to escalate, and may indeed turn into all-out civil war.

Civil Wars often follow revolutions. Witness France when they overthrew their monarchy, and Russia with the rise of Communism, as two prime examples. This is the norm, rather than the exception. When monarchies and dictators are overthrown there is a vacuum of power that is sometimes filled with your Napoleon Bonaparte’s and Joseph Stalin’s. If a country does arrive at democracy, it usually takes a long, long time, and much sacrifice and pain.

We were lucky in America to have two great men at our two most critical moments, George Washington at our inception, after our war of independence, and Abraham Lincoln, who held the nation together during our Civil War.

Iraq may or may not arrive at democracy. There might be a civil war. I don’t see an Iraqi Washington or Lincoln on the scene, so the journey to wherever they are going is likely to be messy.

This all falls under the rubric of the unintended consequences of war. We should have expected the unexpected.

Were we wrong to depose Saddam? No. He was a mass murderer and war criminal, and he was dangerous to Israel, to the United States, and to the world.

Every life sacrificed in order to overthrow him is validated, in a big way. Some things really are worth dying for. I’m sorry for the deaths of these wonderful Americans, Iraqi’s and others from all over the world, but they did not die in vain.

Yes, Iraq might split into three parts, all of them at war over oil and other rights. Iran might hold sway over the Shia’s. Baghdad might turn fundamentalist Islam. Global warming might be worse than we thought. A comet might land on Manhattan. Life is tough. We’ll have to deal with all that, and we will.

Yes, and when we got rid of Capone there were other gangsters. When we nailed Hitler, there were Idi Amin’s to follow. Saddam was evil and dangerous, and he’s gone. Period. One down, a thousand to go. It’s a good thing.

We should always just do the right things, and not demand that circumstances work out the way we we’d like. Overthrowing Saddam was the right thing to do, regardless of the consequences. Life will always throw us curves. Our fallen died fighting for a good cause, and they personally met their unintended consequences. They dealt with them with honor. Unfortunately, this is a part of life. Like our fallen comrades, we can deal with our unintended consequences too, and so can the world.


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