Monday, July 24, 2006

Global Warming

I watched a TIVO of Tom Brokaw's "Global Warming: What You Need to Know." I was afraid to see it, as lefty Tom, I would expect, would present the usual biased view on one of the left's major issues. There is no way I'm going to attend Al Gore's movie, "An Inconvenient Truth," as I know it will be full of Gore self-aggrandizement, bad science, and alarmist propaganda. I was pleasantly surprised with Brokaw, however. Though he sprinkled the piece with plenty of the usual leftist alarmism, he also presented at least some of the truth, which is what I am all about.

A couple things I still disagree with, however. First, no leftist piece, and this one was no different, presents scientists from the opposing view. Second, well, I'll get to this at the end.

After seeing this piece, with all the glaciers melting and such, I buy the fact that we are in a period of global warming. I also buy that CO2 levels in the atmosphere have risen along with the temperature. I saw no proof, however, of a causal relationship, at least as it was presented. In other words, are rising CO2 levels causing global warming, or is it a result of it?

The question arises, and Brokaw did at least try to deal with this, are we just in another natural cycle of warming, or is mankind affecting it for the worse? I’m almost convinced that we do have something to do with it. Again, though, I’d like to hear from the scientists who disagree with this.

If we are causing global warming with our emissions of greenhouse gases, I am willing to go green to a certain extent, as I love nature and the quality of life as much as any liberal. I don’t want the polar bears to go extinct. I will not be happy if Katrina becomes a recurring event.

The Brokaw piece, though, hinted that none of the scientists knows for sure the future course of global warming. A slight tilt in the earth’s orbit can even lower temperatures worldwide 1 degree, which could start a cycle of events leading to another ice age. To me, this means that global warming would then be a good thing. It could save us from going the way of the wooly mammoth. Still, the consensus of scientists, they say, is that global warming is real, and will continue to get worse. So, fine, let’s go green. But let’s do it rationally, without panic. We don’t need to go all the way to Kyoto. Also, the U.S. might be the major culprit in the warming now, but China and India will become major players in this very soon, and we’ll have to figure out what to do with them on this issue. You can’t very well tell them to stay in the Stone Age.

Lastly, no one on earth seems to realize, except me it seems, that there is another factor in all this. Population. Do the math. How much CO2 will be pumped into the atmosphere when the U.S. census reaches 600 million, as opposed to 300 million? Even if you get 80 miles per gallon, average, 600 million people will throw out a lot of greenhouse gases. Plus, expanding human populations are largely responsible for the disappearance of the Amazon rain forest, the extinction of animal species in Africa, and even the diminished populations of the Atlantic salmon.

The right pooh-poohs the harm of over-population. The left won’t tackle this issue because it would offend some of its constituents, like the burgeoning Hispanic base. Capitalism, in fact, in order to grow, needs an ever-increasing number of people. This is one of the major flaws of the system.

What are the solutions? Fine, let’s go green to an extent, but we don’t need to go hog-wild. Second, and this is Rock’s contribution, we need to worry about overpopulation. This planet might seem big to us at times, but there is a limit to intelligent growth, capitalism notwithstanding. Plus, remember that global warming might save us when the next ice age comes a threatening. Let’s hear from all the scientists, not just the lefties.

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8 comments:

Anonymous said...

rock said:

... fine, let's go green ...

Alas, it is NOT the solution, unless you are a anti-human zealot, who belives that all that warming is the fault of humans...

So, if you believe that the warming is caused by us, then, yes, "going green" is a reasonable conclusion to neutralize the Warming.

Unfortunately, it is not the case, for the simple reason that Warming/Colding existed since well before human arrived on this planet. It's just how the climate is. It cannot be constant, it is always Warming/Colding, humans or no humans.

Yes, releasing CO2 into atmosphere by humans is (most probably) one warming factor, but there are other factors in play, most of them un-understood. (btw, did they say in the film that CO2 is by far NOT the most powerful greenhouse gas, the most powerful one is [i won't tell you] ?)

As for other human factors - agriculture, deforestation, etc - noone knows what effect they have on global climate. Diffetrent models give different prognosises. Btw, that's why all those GWarming mongers are so focused on CO2 - it's effects are more or less understood.

So, just "going green" is unlikely to deliver us from the evil of GWarming. And even if we manage to neutralize human effects on climate, still the natural causes would bring Warming (or Ice Age) nevertheless. Then what do we do?

My suggestion - let's build our civilisation the way so it won't be affected by Warmings, Coldings, etc.

Rock said...

Thank you igor for your comments. You have a different view than I, but that's what makes the world go round. It's an interesting approach. I still am uncomfortable with our huge population expansion, though. I can just envision that if we got hit with a tiny meteor which would cloud the skies and stop a portion of agriculture--what would happen? We'd have chaos. People attacking people for food, cannibalism, you name it.

You're right about the natural cycles. I agree with that. There are forces bigger in nature than anything we humans can do.

Anonymous said...

yeah, over-population looks like a problem... but what can we do ?

there are blogs out here who suggest that human population should be reduced 3-4-fold.... guess how.

there are radicals who sleep and dream that humans would/should die off altogether, so whales/whitebears/bugs/younameit would live "freely".

=========================

on the other hand, what makes you think that there is an overpopulation? how many is over?

the average earth's population density is:

6,500,000,000 humans
divided by

(200,000,000 sg miles - total earth surface area
divided by 3 - land is only one third of total earth surface area
divided by 2 - half of land is considered un-livable - arctic/antarctic, deserts, mountains, etc(open for discussion)
) - 33,000,000 sq miles

= 200 humans per sq mile = 80 humans per sq km (sorry, I don't understand your miles...)

so: 80 persons/sq km

is it high or low ? for comparison:

USA (as a whole): 31 persons per sq km
Britain : 250 persons per sq km
France : 110 persons per sq km

you think China ? ok, China : 140 persons per sq km

India : 320 persons per sq km (now that's serious!)
Japan : 350 persons per sq km - and they seem living just fine, thank-you-very-much

now, there is the one I want to show you:

Netherlands : 400 persons per sq km! Five times the world's population density! Who thinks life is baaad in Holland?
and foreseeing simpletonian arguments, I'd like to mention that dutch produce several times the amount of food they need (in a rather unhospitable climate) and constantly fight the sea invasion at the same time (Holland is at or below sea level...)

so, do we have too many people, or do we not?

Rock said...

igor, I replied to your comments, but now it's not showing. I'll come back and reply later.

paz y amor said...

Damn, that Igor put a whole new spin on the topic! Interesting factoid there. Anyway, I would say that truth regarding GWarming lies somewhere between the right wing's perspective of environmental ambivalence to favor commerce and the left wing's perspective of blind environmental responsibility. I think we can all agree that climate cycles are natural and can't be helped- but it's the RATE of change that alarms people, myself included. Riddle me this Batman- Mt. Kilamanjaro has been snow capped for more than a millenia, so what's the explanation for the snow melting to almost nil within 20-30 years? The human factor cannot be ignored nor denied. Money is what is keeping the global warming "question" ambiguous, regardless of what scientists say. Rock, is it possible that there are too few scientists that say human impact on global warming is minimal and that is why there was no opposing view from the science world?

Rock said...

paz y amor, nice to hear from you again. I can see exactly where you're coming from. I still wonder whether scientists really understand the whole thing yet. Climate is amazingly complex.

Did you see the Brokaw piece? Brokaw as much as said there is still controversy about the future course of global warming. Given this, I'd like to hear from the dissenters.

In the meantime, it's hard to argue with your logic. L.A. is sweltering these days, and little islands are disappearing.

On the other hand, we humans imagine that the world as we know it, is the way it's supposed to be. The truth is, change is the only constant. The earth's crust is always moving, though we don't feel it, and the climate is always transforming. What is remarkable is the resiliency of life.

If global warming is real, and NYC is destined to be covered with 80 feet of water, then the scuba diving and glass-bottom boat businesses will thrive in the area. The fish will have nice, big skyscrapers to grow up in.

Rock said...

igor, thanks for your well-thought-out comments. I say we are already overpopulated, or getting there.

My criteria are freeway traffic, pollution, and the disappearance of animal habitats.

L.A. could solve its traffic problem, yes, with mass transit. Tokyo seems to be doing pretty good with this issue, though its population density is huge. Still, lines for everything, not just traffic, are about long enough.

Pollution is not just a matter of industrial malfeasance. The more people you have, the more pollution there is, period. China and India are starting to industrialize at an amazing pace. With their populations, look out environment.

The Amazon rain forest is disappearing fast, as well as animal habitats in Africa and other places. Why? Human expansion into their territories. Plus, these lands are being used for farming or industry to satisfy the needs of a growing world population.

I think we could take a rest with the breeding thing.

Anonymous said...

rock said:

On the other hand, we humans imagine that the world as we know it, is the way it's supposed to be. The truth is, change is the only constant.

I agree 110% with you here ! Brilliantly said !

============

as for the pollution and traffic jams - my opinion is that it is mostly because of how people live, not because how many they are... both europe and japan went through awful pollution and emerged with flying colors. (traffic jams are not that easy, though, he-he)

same with amazonian jungle, transfer, say, europian way of life to Brasilia (including european way of mind) - there would be no need to cut down those rain forests...