Today's Election Math

The House

According to the New York Times as of today, October 22, 2006, (NY Times election analysis) here are the election expectations. The current, Republican-controlled House has 202 Democrats, 230 Republicans, 1 Independent, and 2 Vacant Seats. According to polls and other criteria, here is how we are leaning as a nation:

Safe Dem 190
Leaning Dem 24
Toss up 15
Safe Rep 183
Leaning Rep 23

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Theoretically, then, either party can still win the House. For the Republicans to do so, though, given that the races leaning towards each party remain the same, they would have to sweep the toss up races. So, for Republicans to win the House at this time, they’d have to reverse trends in some races leaning Democratic, or win all the toss up races, 15 of them.

On the other hand, Republicans are conceded to have better organization at this time in history, including a better get-out-the-vote. Some Democrats, too, are afraid of voter fraud, a manufactured issue in my opinion. Plus, something could happen in these next few weeks that will bring the Republicans back, an October surprise like a terrorist attack. And, the Republicans might just campaign better.

Still, overall, it looks like the Democrats will win the House. Republican scandals and corruption seem to have fostered a tipping point. Plus, hardcore Republicans are deeply disappointed with Republican overspending and failure on such issues as immigration. The Iraq war looks like a mess. Some Republicans, therefore, are going to stay home and not vote, which is how elections are lost these days. It appears that even Karl Rove can’t fix all this.

The Senate

The current Senate has 44 Democrats and 56 Republicans. According to the New York Times here are today’s election expectations. According to polls and other criteria, here is how we are leaning as a nation:

Safe Dem 40
Leaning Dem 8
Toss up 4
Safe Rep 47
Leaning Rep 1

Theoretically, then, either party can still win the Senate. If things stay as they are now, the Senate might end up in a tie, 50 Democrats and 50 Republicans. This assumes an even split of the toss up races. Then, Vice President Cheney’s extra vote would still theoretically leave the Republicans in control. This control, though, would be flimsy. It would likely be a contentious, unproductive body.

The Likely Outcome

The Democrats will win control of the House. The Republicans will keep flimsy control of the Senate.

If this happens, Bush and the Republicans have brought this all on themselves. If this happens, the Democrats will strengthen their positioning for the 2008 election.

Of course, there could be an October surprise, favoring one or the other party. And, the Democrats could snatch defeat from the jaws of victory by harping on voter fraud or other bogus issues while presenting no clear agenda on Iraq and the economy, for example.

Likely? No. Unless the Democrats shoot themselves in the foot, or go hunting with Cheney, they will at least win the House.

Rock


(*Wikipedia is always my source unless indicated.)

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