World War III?

Newt Gingrich's declaration on Meet the Press that World War III has already started, brought a quick demurral from Sen. Joe Biden (D-DE), who was also a guest on the show. According to Jay Bryant, though, Newt is Right: It's World War III, Yahoo News.

Gingrich is dead-on right, no matter how incendiary his language may be. The events of the intervening weeks, mostly around the Israel-Lebanon border, lend credence to his position. What's more, these events also suggest that the good guys are no more assured of winning World War III than they were, at the outset, of winning either World War I or World War II.

Gingrich's warning is, for many, a very inconvenient truth. But the failure to recognize this truth, and act accordingly, will lead to the downfall of Western civilization long before global warming even has us breaking a sweat.

Is Newt right? Are we in WWIII?

I think it’s important to characterize the present struggle accurately. The reason is that in order to fight it effectively, the American public, and the publics of other countries who are struggling with us, need to know what to expect, and what is required of them to win.

There is a difference between a war and a battle against insurgencies, or against terrorists. War is what happened with Napoleon, and in the Spanish-American War, and with World War I, World War II, and the Korean War. It is two or more armies, wearing uniforms, openly fighting.

An insurgency is an armed uprising, revolt, or insurrection against an established civil or political authority. Persons engaging in insurgency are called insurgents, and typically engage in regular or guerrilla combat against the armed forces of the established regime, or conduct sabotage and harassment in the land.*

Insurgencies are what has happened in the Philippines, as with the Moro Islamic Liberation Front (MILF). Insurgency took place in Vietnam in the south. Vietnam is interesting in that it was both a war and an insurgency. There were two armies in open conflict, but there was also an insurgency among the people in the south. Insurgency also occurred in Cuba, and in El Salvador.

Terrorism refers to a strategy of using violence, or threat of violence targeted against non-combatants to generate fear, cause disruption, and ultimately, to bring about compliance with specific political, religious, ideological, and personal demands. The targets of terrorist attacks typically are not the individuals who are killed, injured, or taken hostage, but rather the societies to which these individuals belong. Terrorism is a type of unconventional warfare designed to weaken or supplant existing political landscapes through capitulation or acquiescence, as opposed to subversion or direct military action. The broader influence of terrorism in the modern world is often attributed to the dramatic focus of mass media in amplifying feelings of intense fear and anger.*

Terror is what is going on in Spain with the Basques. It took place in Ireland with the IRA. It is happening in Iraq with Al-Queda. Notice that many of the fighters for Al-Queda are not Iraqis. They can hardly be called an insurgency.

Both insurgencies and terrorism are examples of asymmetric warfare.

This is a term that describes a military situation in which two belligerents of unequal strength interact and take advantage of their respective strengths and weaknesses. This interaction often involves strategies and tactics outside the bounds of conventional warfare.*

The reason for asymmetrical warfare is that one side is overwhelmed by the military might of the other. The Palestinians cannot defeat the Israeli army toe-to-toe. Al-Queda cannot battle the Americans army-to-army. So, they resort to asymmetrical warfare, in this case, terror.

What does Al-Queda want? A country? Yes, but more.

Al-Queda, and other Islamic fundamentalists, hate infidels. They don’t just want to take over the government of Iraq, they want to terrorize the populace away from the West and Western values and democracy. Yassin Musharbash, in an article for Spiegel Online, August 12, 2005, entitled What al-Qaida Really Wants, refers to Jordanian journalist Fouad Hussein, who has good contacts with Al Queda. He not only spent time in prison with al-Zarqawi, but has also made contact with many of the network's leaders. Based on correspondence with these sources, he has now brought out a book (still written only in Arabic), detailing the organization's master plan, which involves seven-steps to establish an Islamic caliphate by the year 2020. This caliphate would stretch from Spain to the Middle East.

So, is Newt Gingrich correct? Are we are entering World War III? Considering all the definitions, and the intentions of the enemy, the answer is no, not exactly.

This will not be a “war,” in the sense of two or more armies, wearing uniforms, openly engaging each other. It is not an insurgency, as it is not localized. It is not the mere struggle to overthrow a government. On our side, it is a “war” against terrorism as a tactic. Plus, it is a “war” against Islamo-facism. Yet Islamo-facism is not a country, and has no standing army. They don’t wear uniforms.

What we have, basically, then, is a clash of civilizations—the values, religions, and culture of the West versus the values, religion and culture of the fundamentalist Islamic radicals.

We are in a war, if you want to call it that, but it is an asymmetric war, and against a civilization, not a nation. There will be no armies to defeat. The enemy aren’t guerillas in the traditional sense of the word. Still, it is global. The enemy won’t be satisfied with the overthrow of a single government. They want their far-flung caliphate.

We in America, and Europe, must prepare to fight this new kind of asymmetrical warfare. We lose the advantage of our mighty army. We must use all the tactics granted us by the Patriot Act, and more. We must learn new tactics. Our war colleges need to study insurgencies, terrorism, all kinds of asymmetrical warfare, and to develop better intelligence. Plus, we need to explain our case to the world, and win hearts and minds. This does not mean we hold back from defending ourselves because the world won’t like us. Rather, that we defend ourselves vigorously, while at the same time articulating why we are doing what we must do.

Finally, we must attack terrorism at its source. We must go after Syria and Iran, and even Saudi Arabia, in whatever way is prudent and necessary, to stop the funding of terror, and eliminate the indoctrination of whole populations, and especially of young minds. We can’t be liaise faire about this. We must present a reasonable, well-argued alternative to the hatred that is being taught in Islamic madrasahs.

(*Wikipedia is always my source unless indicated.)

This Post’s Technorati Tags: Newt Gingrich, World War III, war, insurgency, terrorism, unconventional warfare, Al-Queda, Basques, MILF, asymmetrical warfare, truth

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